Lindholm: Cubs’ 2014 PECOTA Projections

February 10, 2014 3:21 PM By Scott Lindholm-

" (CBS) Last week I discussed the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for the White Sox, who were projected for a 75-87 record and to finish fourth in the AL Central. This post focuses on the Cubs’ projections.

BP projects the Cubs to finish 71-91 and last in the NL Central behind St. Louis (88-74), Cincinnati (83-79), Milwaukee (80-82) and Pittsburgh (78-84). On the positive side, this would represent a five-game improvement over 2013. On the negative side, it would be the second-worst record in the NL and the third-worst in all of baseball. That’s the state BP believes the Cubs have reached — not exactly rock bottom but close enough to brace for impact.

These are the projections for position players:

Pos Name PA HR RBI AVG OBP SLG WARP C Welington Castillo 511 17 61 .249 .323 .414 1.7 1B Anthony Rizzo 631 28 91 .258 .332 .472 2.9 2B Darwin Barney 546 6 44 .251 .294 .349 1.1 3B Luis Valbuena 307 8 33 .233 .315 .382 0.4 SS Starlin Castro 651 11 60 .280 .318 .411 2.7 LF Justin Ruggiano 337 13 43 .250 .315 .437 1.2 CF Ryan Sweeney 402 6 42 .273 .332 .398 1.7 RF Nate Schierholtz 584 17 70 .254 .306 .418 1.2 C George Kottaras 122 4 14 .220 .325 .390 0.3 IF Mike Olt 261 12 36 .224 .314 .424 1.0 IF Logan Watkins 393 7 36 .234 .304 .357 0.1 IF Christian Villanueva 61 2 7 .235 .277 .393 0.0 IF Javier Baez 66 4 10 .243 .280 .476 0.2 IF Arismendy Alcantara 61 1 6 .242 .282 .375 0.1 IF Donnie Murphy 68 3 9 .237 .298 .446 0.3 OF Junior Lake 541 12 48 .247 .286 .378 0.4 OF Chris Coghlan 108 2 10 .261 .329 .392 0.2 OF Josh Vitters 32 1 4 .241 .288 .400 0.1 OF Brett Jackson 32 1 3 .205 .285 .355 -0.1

Adapted from data at Baseball Prospectus.

It is intriguing that BP expects contributions from prospects like Christian Villanueva, Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez before anything from Kris Bryant. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are projected to have decent seasons, with Rizzo projected to increase his home runs and Castro to return to form "

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